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NOAA: Near- to above-average hurricane season expected

25 May, 2018, 21:39 | Author: Lucille Rivera
  • Atlantic hurricane season expected to be near-normal this year

The looming Atlantic hurricane season will likely be active but not almost as punishing as past year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

Government forecasters are gearing up for a busy hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

"Normal or above normal season is a lot of storms".

NOAA predicted that 2017 would be an above-average season, and it certainly was. But he acknowledged that even 100% accuracy in predicting the number of storms and their windspeed would not obviate the need for precautions in hurricane-prone areas.

An average year, according to NOAA, has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Back last May, before Memorial Day weekend, the long-range forecasters from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

In making the prediction, forecasters also looked at a decades long weather pattern called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation that helps control ocean temperatures.

During Hurricane Season you should take it 5 or so days at a time and always assume this is the year you might get hit, no matter what the seasonal outlook says. There were 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, including Harvey, Irma and Maria, which devastated parts of Texas, Florida and the Caribbean.

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The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, peaks from August to October, and extends to November 30.

He said the organization predicted 10 to 16 tropical systems, with five to nine becoming hurricanes. Some areas, such as Puerto Rico, are still recovering from last years destructive season.

Robichaud said Canadians can prepare for hurricane season by assembling emergency kits and readying their homes and properties.

The following visualization shows the estimates as bars from low to high predictions, mapped against dots representing the actual number of storms.

While the 2018 hurricane season is expected to be less intense than in 2017, there is still a heightened hurricane risk for the mainland US and islands in the Caribbean, Gerry Bell, a hurricane climate specialist and research meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), said at the news conference.

"But we are fairly, highly confident that the main impact is going to be heavy rain, and it could bring enough rains to cause flooding problems".

Irma reached Category 5 and was the strongest storm on record in the open Atlantic.

The estimates that NOAA's model produces are accurate about 70 percent of the time, its developers say, and are often only off by one or two storms outside the projected range.


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